I applied exponential smoothing, seasonal decomposition as well as SARIMAX models on the different tiers and individual crime types.
In case of murders, the trend shows a general downward trend, but it is not very consistent. The tier 2 (Assault, arson) and tier 3 (Burglary robbery etc.) crimes show a steady downward trend since 2015. This could be due to actual policing improvements or due to reduced reporting.
I applied a similar analysis for accident data to see the safety standards on the roads of Boston. The general trend shows a steady incline in the number of accidents occurring in Boston. The seasonality component of the data shows a high during the middle of the year and low frequency of accidents during the winter months. This was the opposite of my expectation that the dangerous nature of the roads during winter months would increase the number of accidents.
