December 8, 2023
Today we continued work on the report for this project.
December 6, 2023
With majority of my analysis being in time series forecasting of the data, now our group shift our focus towards combining our insights to write the report for this project.
We have discussed the issues we want to answer with our analysis at the start of the project, now we will revisit the questions and see to what extent we are able to answer them.
December 4, 2023
Visionzero
From the Analyze Boston webstie, I found another dataset pertaining to accidents and road safety called VisionZero. The aim of this organization is to completely eradicate fatal car crashes in Boston by 2030.
According to this dataset, there is a steady decrease in the number of car crash incidents in Boston since 2015. There is a steep drop observed in 2020 thanks to the pandemic related lockdown, but the frequency jumps back to pre-Covid averages soon after.
The rmse score of Exponential smoothing is 49.399.
Seasonal Decomposition shows a reduction in accidents since 2020. Between 2015 and 2020, the accident rate is shown to be more or less constant.
December 1, 2023
I applied exponential smoothing, seasonal decomposition as well as SARIMAX models on the different tiers and individual crime types.
In case of murders, the trend shows a general downward trend, but it is not very consistent. The tier 2 (Assault, arson) and tier 3 (Burglary robbery etc.) crimes show a steady downward trend since 2015. This could be due to actual policing improvements or due to reduced reporting.
I applied a similar analysis for accident data to see the safety standards on the roads of Boston. The general trend shows a steady incline in the number of accidents occurring in Boston. The seasonality component of the data shows a high during the middle of the year and low frequency of accidents during the winter months. This was the opposite of my expectation that the dangerous nature of the roads during winter months would increase the number of accidents.
